The Mid-2026 Market Outlook is our first quarterly outlook published externally, written by the Global Macro and Credit desks. It steps back from the near-term flow of events to the medium-term regime, working through rates, credit, FX, commodities, and equities and setting out where we land across each. The organizing thesis is "moment versus regime." The June 2026 Iran ceasefire took the acute premium out of energy, but the structural shifts it accelerated are still in place, and that gap between the headline and the regime is what the report is about. A glossary at the back covers the key terms for anyone newer to macro and credit.